The Australian population is forecast to reach 28.6 million by June 2029, according to new forecasts, which could put housing targets under further pressure.
New figures released by the federal Centre for Population have shown that there will be another 1.1 million living in Australia by June 2029, taking the official population to over 28.6 million.
The figures, published in the 2025 Population Statement earlier this month, also revealed that Australia’s population will top 30 million within the next decade, hitting the milestone at the end of the financial year 2033. In 10 years’ time, the population is projected to grow to 31.5 million, despite falling net overseas migration and fertility rates.
Concerns have been mounting that the housing targets will not be met, with the new population figures exacerbating worries regarding how the country will house the growing population, given ongoing shortfalls in demand.
Under the federal government’s National Housing Accord, the government is aiming to bring online 1.2 million “well-located” homes by the end of June 2029. This figure was revised in August 2023, increasing from the original target of 1 million new dwellings, following higher-than-expected population growth and an ongoing housing shortage.
However, last year, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council forecast that around 938,000 dwellings would be completed over the five-year period, equating to a potential shortfall of 262,000 homes. This was due to a range of factors, including a significant backlog of unmet demand in the housing system, an upward revision to interest rate assumptions, and weaker-than-expected dwelling approvals.
The newly released 2025 Population Statement suggests that the challenge to house the growing Australian population could be more acute.
The shortfall is likely to hit major cities hardest, where population growth is concentrated, and housing supply is already tight.
Analysts have cautioned that, without accelerated construction and policy interventions, both property prices and rents are likely to remain high, compounding longstanding affordability issues.
REA Group senior economist Angus Moore told The Adviser: “The projections suggest Australia’s population will increase, on average, by about 340,000 more people per year between now and the middle of 2029.
“With Australia’s average household size of roughly 2.5 people per dwelling, that would imply we need an average of around 140,000 new homes per year.”
However, he added that household size is not fixed and “responds to how many homes we build and how expensive homes are – when homes are more expensive, people are more likely to stay at home, live with more housemates, or move in with family”.
Moore added: “There’s no right number of homes we need for projected population, but the more we build, the more affordable homes will be, and the more flexibility people will have to live in housing that best suits their needs.”
Speaking to The Adviser, Tim Lawless, executive research director of Cotality’s Asia-Pacific research division, noted that population growth has been lower than forecast and could ease further.
Lawless flagged that the 2025 Population Statement shows that the population is expected to grow by 1.5 per cent in FY25, down from the 1.6 per cent forecast last year.
[Related: Apartments help deliver 15% lift in dwelling approvals]
