With 2025 now in the rear-view mirror, the financial services industry can reflect on a year that defied easy categorisation, but nevertheless performed well despite a turbulent global backdrop.
On the surface, markets projected resilience and optimism. Equity indices pushed higher, housing remained robust, and investor sentiment proved more durable than many predicted at the start of last year. Yet this solid surface masked powerful undercurrents of uncertainty – geopolitical instability, policy tensions, and technological disruption – all shaping a peculiar mix of unknowns that will define 2026.
2025 in retrospect: Why optimism won out
Despite geopolitical turbulence and lingering inflation, optimism largely carried the day in 2025. Markets responded positively to central banks’ measured easing of rates and signs of a stabilising global economy. In Australia, housing once again became a focal point, driven by strong immigration, a chronic undersupply, and renewed demand from investors who had previously stepped aside.
For brokers and lenders, the year remained steady. Clients showed a willingness to borrow and invest, even amid caution. The mood wasn’t one of unrestrained exuberance, but rather cautious optimism, determination to move forward despite a backdrop of uncertainty.
The shadows lurking
Still, the year wasn’t without its shadows. Geopolitical flashpoints from eastern Europe to the South China Sea kept volatility alive. Energy markets, though steadier, remained vulnerable to sudden shocks. And while inflation eased, it didn’t disappear, keeping central banks cautious about loosening policy too quickly.
Closer to home, the financial services sector wrestled with the competing pressures of tighter regulation and rapid technological change. Compliance expectations grew more demanding just as firms were urged to innovate faster – a tension that is unlikely to ease in the coming year.
And then there’s the ATO. We often collaborate with SME accountant Justin Mastores at Rees Group, who had a similar take about the ATO turning up the pressure, observing that while audits ticked up slightly, the bigger story was the ATO’s aggressive stance on outstanding debts and compliance, targeting businesses and tax agents alike. We both expect this focus to continue into 2026, so make sure your and your clients’ accounts are in order and that any outstanding ATO debts are proactively addressed.
Technology’s growing role
Technology continued its rapid integration into lending and broking, reshaping processes from approvals to client profiling. The benefits: efficiency, enhanced insights, and better service were substantial, but they came with growing scrutiny. Clients and regulators increasingly expect digital progress to be matched by transparency and responsible implementation.
Looking ahead: 2026 forecasts
If 2025 was defined by resilience, 2026 will be a year of adjustment. Inflation is proving difficult to shift, and without gains in productivity or meaningful changes in government balance sheets, pressure will persist. Households without significant assets or with fixed incomes are likely to feel the strain of rising living costs and limited wage growth.
Markets may no longer benefit from the tailwinds of rate cuts, and while housing demand will remain strong, affordability pressures will intensify. With rates stable, perhaps even creeping up, I’m also expecting that refinancing and debt consolidation will be the ‘hidden boom’ for the year ahead as borrowers look to manage servicing costs before the next interest rate move.
As we move into 2026, the challenge for financial services professionals will be to balance buoyant demand with growing risks, while embracing change without losing the human touch that defines our industry. That means brokers should brace not only for opportunity, but for responsibility. Helping clients navigate debt consolidation, refinancing strategies, and arrears prevention may become as central to the broker role as arranging new finance.
Top tips for brokers to make the most of 2026
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Use technology with purpose. Leverage digital tools to automate repetitive, labour-intensive tasks, so you can focus your time where it matters most: building trust, offering personalised guidance, and strengthening client relationships.
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Elevate every conversation with proactive risk management. In an environment defined by economic uncertainty, rising costs, and global volatility, make risk management a standard part of your client dialogue. Anticipating vulnerabilities helps clients feel prepared, supported, and confident in their decisions.
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Don’t stay a secret: be visible. Ensure clients and prospects clearly understand who you are, the value you offer, and how to reach you. Consistent visibility builds credibility and keeps you top of mind when decisions need to be made.
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Lead with service, not selling. Shift the focus from pushing products to providing insight. Regularly share meaningful updates, trends, and recommendations that demonstrate expertise and genuine care. This will keep clients engaged and coming back.
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Prioritise long-term relationships over short-term wins. In uncertain markets, loyalty is earned through ongoing support that extends far beyond a single transaction. Long-term thinking creates repeat business, referral opportunities, and clients who see you as a trusted partner, not a one-off provider.
At Trail Homes, we see this as a pivotal moment. The peculiar mix of unknowns will remain with us, but so too will the opportunities for those who adapt, innovate, and guide clients with both confidence and care.
Nick Young is a results-driven specialist with over 25 years of experience in the mortgage broking industry, and he now heads Trail Homes: Australia’s most established and longest-serving trail book purchaser.
