A housing monitor conducted by the major bank has revealed investors are snapping up loans at record paces, signalling a demand-driven 2026 housing surge.
National Australia Bank (NAB) has released the first edition of its new monthly Housing Monitor, with the economics and markets research team finding that the growth in property prices in 2025 was propelled by strong buyer interest and ongoing supply limitations across capitals and regions.
Pulling on the bank’s own data and information from property analytics company Cotality, NAB’s Housing Monitor noted that combined capital city dwelling values rose 8.2 per cent through 2025 to a median of around $900,000, accelerating from the previous year’s more subdued gains following the 2022–23 slowdown.
A 0.5 per cent monthly increase was recorded in December despite momentum easing in Sydney and Melbourne.
Price growth led in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, where gains significantly outpaced Sydney’s moderation and Melbourne’s weaker performance, while Hobart lagged furthest.
Regional markets modestly outperformed capitals overall, bucking the urban-led rallies earlier in the decade.
Homes sold quickly nationwide, with the median time spent on market coming in at 28 days. This velocity was sharpest in high-growth Perth and Brisbane versus the slower southern capitals.
The monitor noted that about two-thirds of households owned their home outright or with a mortgage, while 30 per cent rented.
NAB suggested that the split underscores rental tightness as a yield driver, which was particularly seen in growth corridors like Queensland and Western Australia over more saturated Sydney and Melbourne.
Investor lending roars back
New housing loan commitments increased by 13 per cent or $11.5 billion over the year to Q3, a “robust” recovery from 2023, led by investors who outpaced owner-occupiers for the first time in recent years.
The Housing Monitor also found that variable mortgage rates eased by about 80 basis points on early 2024 levels, with the average mortgage for owner-occupier standing at $640,000.
High debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios stayed minimal nationally.
Over the year 2025, loan arrears nudged up to 1 per cent of outstanding balances (and were highest in low-doc segments), with investor-heavy states like Queensland and Western Australia showing resilience versus the southern markets.
Supply strains persist amid pipeline hope
However, NAB noted that supply continued to constrain the housing market.
It flagged that net additions to dwelling stock trailed well below 2015 peaks, perpetuating the undersupply issues that have been plaguing the industry since the COVID-19 construction disruptions, even as approvals climbed to bolster a substantial pipeline.
Apartment starts outpaced completions, swelling work-in-progress high-rise developments, especially in NSW and Victoria.
Meanwhile, detached houses and town houses saw slight completion time improvements, though apartments faced lengthening timelines amid rising complexity.
[Related: Summer property report: How affordability pressures are heating up the market]
