I believe we’re underestimating one of the biggest structural shifts the broking industry has ever faced. From where I sit, up to 50 per cent of today’s broking volume is exposed to disruption.
What we’re seeing with change in broking isn’t normal industry change – it’s the early phase of a major disruption. And if the pattern plays out, a substantial portion of that volume will shift back to direct-to-lender channels.
I built my brokerage, Loanezi, by scaling lean with technology, and it has worked for a decade. But recently, something shifted. The return on effort changed, and pressure emerged across the funnel – consumer behaviour, marketing, and lender strategy. Then it clicked, I’ve seen this before!
I’ve been a broker since 2016. Prior to that, I spent 15 years at Telstra during one of the biggest industry disruptions. Today, alongside Loanezi, I work as a strategist, and one thing I know is this: you don’t guess your way through disruption – you follow patterns.
From telco to broking: The same disruption pattern
During my time at Telstra, which included building and running two dealerships, I saw exactly how this plays out. The early signs were there from 2010, but the real shift hit in 2018 with the Telstra2022 strategy.
At the time, Telstra relied heavily on privately owned dealerships, just like broker firms today. They owned the customer relationships, drove new business, and made up more than half the retail footprint. The dealer channel was booming – it felt safe, it felt stable, until it wasn’t!
How the Telstra strategy played out: 8,000 job cuts. A hard push into digitisation. And a systematic buyback of those dealerships. Control began to move back in-house. The industry didn’t disappear – but the role of the intermediary did.
Today, most stores are company-owned, and consumer transactions have largely moved direct and fully digitised. The dealers that remain are focused on SMEs, and even there, the simple deals are gone.
The broking boom that’s hiding the gap
On the surface, broking is booming. But underneath, the gap is widening. Larger, more structured brokerages are scaling fast, while some smaller brokers are already being absorbed or outcompeted.
Many lenders have already reported that in-house lending delivers stronger margins than broker-originated deals, and they are actively strategising how to shift volume back in-house. Not to remove brokers – to improve margins.
Simultaneously, technology is accelerating the shift. Tools like Digital ID, Docusign, and API integrations are already simplifying transactions. Step back, and the pattern is obvious: margins tighten, businesses look for efficiencies. When technology can replace legwork, pressure will always land on the distribution channel first.
The reality behind broker volume
According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, around 70 per cent of home loans are considered simple, PAYG, low risk, and straightforward. Yet right now, brokers originate more than three-quarters of all loans, according to the MFAA.
Lenders are investing heavily in technology to simplify applications, speed up approvals, and automate decisioning.
Historically, broker value has been in relationships and acquisitions, navigating lenders, and managing processes. According to the data, much of today’s volume isn’t complex. It’s built on access, process, and trust – all of which are now being challenged by automation and comparison tools.
When we combine this with workforce data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and global research on digitisation, a clear picture emerges. A large portion of lending falls in the simple category and will be digitised. The question isn’t if, but how fast. Based on the pace of change and what we’ve seen before, I believe this will impact 50 per cent of broker volume within the next five years.
What remains is complex lending, self-employed clients, layered structures, and policy edge cases where experience and judgement matter.
The 3 shifts behind the volume risk
The disruption facing brokers isn’t about demand disappearing – it’s about the distribution channel value being replaced, coupled with major changes in lead generation, with platforms like Meta becoming more expensive, saturated, and unpredictable ROI.
We are seeing a double impact, pressure on both sides of the model. Technology is reducing the need for intermediaries in simpler deals, with lenders focusing on direct-to-client strategies. On the other hand, the cost of acquiring new clients is increasing.
The final curveball is this: consumer behaviour is rapidly changing, too.
In today’s market, loyalty is fragile in simple deals – even strong relationships are outweighed by convenience, perceived value, and recognised brands.
What to do next
The pattern is clear, and I’m choosing to be a harbinger of what may feel like an uncomfortable realisation because this is no longer theoretical – it requires industry awareness.
Most broker businesses are still in a strong position, and that’s exactly why this moment matters. This is the window to act: streamline, automate, reduce unnecessary costs, and reinvest where the market is heading.
The volume isn’t going – it’s moving. Simple lending will be automated, and the future of broking will centre on complex deals where judgement and relationships matter.
This shift will reshape lenders, aggregators, and the entire ecosystem – and those who move early will shape what comes next, while those who don’t will see margins reduce and relevance decline.
The disruption is already underway. What matters now is who recognises it early enough to act.
Renee Tocco is the managing director of brokerage Loanezi and change management strategist at reneetocco.com.au
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