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ANZ Research revises property price forecasts

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suburbs aerial ta
Reporter 1 minute read

The research group has “revised up” its forecasts for home value growth over the coming year to reflect the recent acceleration in prices.

In its latest housing update, ANZ Research has noted the rapid recovery in the housing market over the past six months, led by sharp price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.

The group said the rebound – which it said has been driven by low interest rates, easier access to credit and increased certainty around housing taxation – would moderate in the second half of 2020.

“Nationwide, we expect prices to rise solidly in 2020, but we think the pace of monthly gains will moderate, helped by rising new listings,” the group stated.

“This already seems the case, with December prices slowing to 1.4 per cent m/m from 1.9 per cent m/m in November.

“Daily house price data suggest the slowdown has continued into January.”

However, in light of the acceleration in dwelling values over recent months, ANZ Research has “revised up” its annual forecast growth.

“Through 2020, we look for growth of 8 per cent nationwide, with a further gain of 4 per cent through 2021,” the group noted.

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According to the analysis, such forecasts are “tilted to the upside” amid expectations of further cuts to the cash rate from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The RBA was initially expected to cut rates in February; however, stronger than anticipated inflation and labour market data have altered market expectations.  

But analysts continue to expect further easing in the medium term.

The RBA’s next monetary policy board meeting will be held on Tuesday, 4 February.

[Related: FHBs undeterred by property price rally]

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