A new national scorecard has shown Western Australia, Queensland, and South Australia powering the housing upswing, yet locking out many first home buyers.
Western Australia has cemented itself as the standout performer in the Housing Industry Association’s (HIA) March quarter 2026 Housing Scorecard.
The scorecard tracks how each state and territory is performing relative to its own 10‑year averages across detached building, multi‑unit construction, renovations, lending and migration.
Western Australia again came in on top, with the association reporting that the state had now notched up top‑three results on 12 of the 13 indicators in the scorecard.
It said the state had delivered “the strongest detached housing sector in the nation; the equal strongest renovations sector in the nation; and the equal second strongest multi‑units market in the nation”.
Queensland came in second while South Australia notched third – with both jurisdictions scoring strongly across detached home building and renovation work.
This reflects what the HIA described as ongoing housing market recoveries rather than a short‑term bounce.
South Australia is now ranked as having the strongest multi‑unit market in the country, ahead of Queensland and Western Australia – pointing to a major shift toward higher‑density projects.
Population flows also continue to shape the picture, with Queensland again recorded as attracting the largest net interstate inflows of any state.
Heat in the market cools first home buyer demand
Despite the strength in overall activity, the HIA noted that Western Australia, Queensland, and South Australia all showed the weakest participation from first home buyers.
It said these markets were instead being driven “more by investors, non‑first home buyers, or both”.
HIA linked this to the steady run‑up in prices that has accompanied the recovery.
“This is potentially linked to affordability dynamics. Western Australia, Queensland, and South Australia saw the weakest relative first home buyer activity in the country around the same time they were among the fastest dwelling price growth markets in the country,” it said.
“It is unsurprising that first home buyers would be the first negatively affected by such dynamics.”
This shows that the most buoyant markets are also the least accessible for newcomers – with investors and existing owners taking a growing share of the activity in states where prices and demand have surged.
Victoria’s fall from top sparks criticism, while NSW shows encouraging signs
In the middle of the rankings sit NSW in fourth spot, Victoria in fifth, and the Northern Territory in sixth, each with softer detached housing pipelines.
NSW and the NT have shown early signs of improvement, with the HIA expecting a similar lift to emerge in Victoria later this year.
However, the scorecard has prompted a sharp rebuke of Victoria's policy framework from HIA Victoria executive director Keith Ryan.
“The Housing Scorecard result can only be described as an indictment of the Victorian government’s approach to business and home building,” he said.
“The size of the Victorian economy and the growing population should be fuelling a much stronger home building industry."
The scorecard also noted that a mix of investors, first home buyers and other owner‑occupiers were underpinning activity in the middle‑ranked states, with Victoria recording strong non‑first home buyer demand.
The story in NSW is more cautiously optimistic, with the HIA pointing to a market that is beginning to regain traction.
HIA NSW executive director Brad Armitage said the state’s improved standing in the scorecard reflected a sector that was starting to respond after years of underperformance.
“The scorecard shows strong levels of activity in alterations and additions, with approvals sitting more than 35 per cent above the decade average, and total private expenditure on these projects also above long‑term norms,” Armitage said.
According to Armitage, there are also early indications that the new‑build side of the market is steadying as well.
“While detached housing approvals and commencements remain below their ten‑year averages, the volume of homes under construction has strengthened, with the pipeline now almost 8 per cent above the decade average,” he said.
“In the multi‑unit sector, approvals remain subdued, but commencements surged in the most recent quarter, reaching their highest level since 2018–19. This improvement suggests renewed momentum in apartment construction, which will be critical to meeting NSW’s long‑term housing needs.”
Unlike the top three states, NSW is also seeing a stronger showing from new entrants.
Armitage noted that “first home buyer activity in NSW outperformed most other states, with loans to first home buyers more than 22 per cent above the decade average.”
ACT and Tasmania stuck at the bottom
At the tail end of the scorecard, the Australian Capital Territory notched seventh while Tasmania came in last.
HIA said both jurisdictions had been “struggling to get off the bottom of the list for a number of years now.”
The ACT recorded the weakest detached housing and renovation activity in the country, while Tasmania was rated as having the worst multi‑unit market nationally.
In the ACT, recent approvals for multi‑unit projects have increased, but the HIA cautioned that the pipeline of dwellings under construction remained thin.
[Related: Apartment approvals roar back as housing target gap widens]
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