Supply squeeze doubles WA and Qld house prices

“In WA and Qld, the share of dwelling completions fell well behind the share of population growth, with these states seeing home values more than double since 2020,” he said.

Burg highlighted that Queensland had absorbed the largest population increase in the country over the five‑year window, with more than a quarter of national growth linked to people moving there.

“Qld accounted for over 25 per cent of the total increase in Australia’s population over this period, but less than 20 per cent of the dwellings completed were located in Qld,” he said.

Western Australia has seen a similar pattern, with its population growth outstripping the state’s contribution to new housing stock.

“In WA, across the same period, the share of the country’s population growth was nearly 17 per cent, in contrast just 10 per cent of completed dwellings,” Burg said.

Those mismatches have translated into intense competition in Perth and Brisbane, where stock levels have remained tight even as demand has swelled.

“Overall, when we see a supply‑demand imbalance such as those in Perth or Brisbane, we wind up with a large pool of buyers competing for a small pool of dwellings,” he noted.

“This creates a seller’s market and can rapidly drive up home values, as we saw in these two capitals.”

Migration patterns and shifting affordability

Burg noted that Queensland’s traditional role as a relatively affordable, lifestyle‑driven destination was now being tested as values climbed.

“Qld has long attracted retirees from other states, and, until recently, offered buyers some more affordable markets compared with other major cities,” Burg said.

“Net migration to Qld has started to slow in the last few quarters, and first home buyers may increasingly look to opportunities elsewhere.”

The Cotality figures sit alongside broader national trends, which show that, despite higher rates and cost‑of‑living pressures, price growth has continued to accelerate.

National dwelling values rose 2.1 per cent over the March quarter and 9.9 per cent over the year – the fastest annual pace since mid‑2022.

Regional markets have also been resilient, with Cotality linking that strength to ongoing regional migration and relative affordability.

At the same time, the data points to a divergence between cities, with the rolling four‑week change in values softening further in Sydney and Melbourne, with mid‑sized capitals also starting to lose momentum.

Victoria builds ahead, SA stands apart

Cotality’s state breakdown showed a different picture at the other end of the supply spectrum.

Burg said Victoria had delivered the largest share of dwelling completions between the five-year period, accounting for roughly one‑third of all new homes and outpacing its share of population growth.

“Policy support at both the state and federal level assisted the growth in Victoria dwellings over this period,” he said.

He added that the composition of Victoria’s new stock still leaned heavily towards detached houses, underscoring the continued appeal of stand‑alone homes.

“Almost 63 per cent of this new supply in VIC were stand‑alone houses, which we see Australians still have a revealed preference for,” he said.

“In NSW, for example, the split between houses and units was closer to 50–50.”

South Australia, meanwhile, emerged as a notable exception to the pattern.

Cotality’s data showed South Australian dwelling values rising by more than 90 per cent over the period, even though new housing supply had broadly matched population growth.

Burg said the outperformance suggested that local demand, investor interest, and starting price points had amplified gains.

[Related: HIA warns regions bearing brunt of housing strain]