The Reserve Bank of Australia has published its 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting dates, with the first meeting of the year set for 2–3 February.
The Monetary Policy Board of the central bank will meet eight times in 2026, holding two-day meetings and announcing the decision on the official cash rate at 2:30pm AEDT on the second day.
As was the case in 2025, the meeting will be followed by a media conference with the RBA governor Michele Bullock at 3:30 pm AEDT.
For 2026, the cash rate meetings will be held on the following dates:
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2–3 February
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16–17 March
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4–5 May
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15–16 June
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10–11 August
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28–29 September
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2–3 November
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7–8 December
Minutes will be released two weeks later, and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy will coincide with the February, May, August, and November meetings.
Expectations rise for February rate hike
The first meeting of the year 2026 is considered to be a ‘live’ meeting, with growing expectations that the RBA could raise the cash rate for the first time since November 2023.
Both the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and National Australia Bank (NAB) have revised their forecasts, now expecting a 25-basis point increase in February. CBA economists have pointed to stronger-than-expected growth in 2025, above-capacity economic conditions, and a resilient consumer as key reasons. They expect GDP to continue rising in early 2026, with inflationary pressures building.
The bank expects a modest adjustment to “ensure inflation is returned to the mid‑point of the target band by the end of 2027”, describing it as a fine-tuning rather than a full hiking cycle.
NAB similarly flagged a February hike, potentially followed by another in May, taking the cash rate to 4.1 per cent. Its economists highlighted the RBA’s more hawkish tone, strong growth, and elevated private demand as reasons for early, modest tightening. Acting early, NAB said, allows the RBA to recalibrate policy gradually, while keeping growth and employment on track.
But not all forecasters expect that 2026 will start with a cash rate increase. Westpac expects a prolonged hold throughout 2026, noting that rate cuts could return in 2027 if labour market conditions soften. ANZ also currently anticipates an extended hold next year.
With February’s meeting coinciding with new CPI data, mortgage brokers and markets alike will be watching closely to see if the RBA lifts rates for the first time in over two years, potentially signalling the start of a new tightening cycle.
[Related: 2 majors say rates will rise in February]
