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ANALYSIS -- Cash rate to hit 6 per cent

by Staff Reporter11 minute read
The Adviser

Australians have now come to terms with the fact that rates are heading north, but how high are they likely to go?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked industry pundits when it lifted rates in November.

After a five-month rate pause, the RBA decided it was prudent to tighten monetary policy before year's end.

According to the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank increased rates to counter an expected acceleration in inflation as mining investment, job growth and overseas demand propel the nation's economy forward.

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"The medium-term economic outlook remains one of strengthening economic activity and gradually rising inflation, as such the Board judged that the balance of risks had shifted to the point where a modest tightening of monetary policy was prudent," the minutes read.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens says the RBA is determined to manage the boom properly and prevent inflation heading back above 3 per cent, as it did in the pre-crisis China boom.

But while the November rate rise was deemed "prudent" by the RBA, it was labelled controversial and unnecessary by the nation's borrowers.

It was controversial for two reasons: First, it followed very soft financial and economic data, including a weak September quarter inflation figure.

Second, it was the fourth rate hike for the year, meaning the RBA has pushed the cash rate up 100 basis points during 2010.

The rate hikes are not expected to stop now. In fact, economists are predicting the Board will lift rates another 100 basis points in 2011 in a bid to keep the boom on the rails and avoid a breakout of inflation.

NAB's chief economist Alan Oster says interest rates will eclipse 5.75 per cent before the end of 2011.

More importantly, he thinks the RBA will kick off its 2011 rate hikes sooner rather than later.

"By mid-year, the official cash rate will hit 5.25 per cent, at which point rates will once again remain on hold given the strength of demand and tightness in the labour market," Mr Oster says.

That forecast has been echoed by other economists, including AMP's Shane Oliver, who believes rates will hit 5 per cent in the first few months of 2011.

But if rates do climb another 100 basis points over the coming 12 months, what impact will it have on Australia's third party broking channel?

Opportune branch principal Michael Doyle says while future rate hikes may hurt borrowers, they will benefit brokers as well as Australia's second tier and non-bank lenders.

Mr Doyle says he has already witnessed a dramatic upswing in refinancing enquiries since the November rate rise.

"We have been really busy," he says. "If the RBA decides to lift rates again, I can only expect refinancing enquiries to surge."

"Better yet, the flight to quality that we saw during the Global Financial Crisis doesn't seem to be an issue anymore as borrowers are becoming more comfortable shopping around for a cheaper alternative to the majors," Mr Doyle says.

"Brokers and non-banks will be the biggest beneficiaries of any future rate hikes, because borrowers will become increasingly unhappy with their lender and start looking around for banking alternatives," he says.

Mr Doyle expects the RBA to lift rates again in February or March and then to hold fire for several months.

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