Brokers weigh in on 2024 property market predictions

Mortgage broker Emma Louise Schuch at Strive Financial Group told The Adviser that she expects the property market to weaken, hopefully “around 10–20 per cent”.

“People that have got investment properties will start putting them on the market due to the affordability and then that’s when the market will go down a little bit and hopefully our first-time buyers can get in the market then,” she added.

Owner and mortgage broker of Wheatley Finance, Andrew Wheatley, commented that the property market may stay “more or less the same”, however, he foresees competition in the mortgage market to return “back to normal”.

“I think one of the big changes we saw more towards the end of 2023 was banks really pulling back on how competitive they are chasing refinances and new business,” Mr Wheatley said.

“Traditionally it’s been new clients getting the best deals, so cashbacks and rates and existing clients get overcharged a bit. But at the end last year, it flipped and a lot of banks have been really aggressive in trying to keep the clients they had and giving them good rates of stay, and not being as aggressive with their cashbacks to get new clients.

“I think that that will revert back to normal over the next few months. I think that the outlier is normal for banks to try to make money off their existing clients and attract clients with great deals.”

Chief executive of Home Loan Experts, Alan Hemmings, said that property prices and rents are “set to continue rising, though more slowly, with stable borrowing conditions”.

“A constant lack of rental properties will keep pushing rents up. Construction struggles, including labour shortages and high costs, will hinder increasing property supply,” Mr Hemmings said.

“Government schemes still need to tackle the main problem of limited property availability. Until these challenges are addressed, property prices and rents will likely keep increasing.”

Home Loan Experts general manager Bhisan Raj KC expects a “busier property market” in 2024.

“Rent prices should stay high but won’t rise much, thanks to stable interest rates and easing inflation,” Mr Raj said.

“The government plans to introduce new tax rates, lowering the marginal rate for many for financial year 2025. It will also launch the Help to Buy scheme, allowing property purchases with just a 2 per cent deposit. However, construction will still face hurdles like high costs and slow planning approvals.”

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver recently said he expected prices to fall around 3–5 per cent this year.

“We have been concerned for some time that the rise in property prices in 2023 was running ahead of itself with a high risk of another leg down. With momentum slowing sharply, this may be starting to unfold,” Dr Oliver said.

“On the one hand, the chronic housing undersupply in the face of record immigration numbers remains a strong force pushing home prices higher. But against this, the impact of high (and possibly still rising) mortgage rates is still feeding through and unemployment is likely to rise significantly this year. This will make for a much rougher ride for the property market in 2024.”

[RELATED: Property prices to slump in 2024: Economist]