The share of borrowers considered ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress has fallen to its lowest point since early 2023, according to new Roy Morgan research.
The proportion of mortgagors considered ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress has fallen to its lowest level since February 2023, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate cut in August, according to new research from Roy Morgan.
In the three months to September 2025, just over a quarter (25.9 per cent) of mortgage holders – around 1.36 million people – were considered ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress.
This figure represents a 2 per cent decrease from August 2025 (27.9 per cent).
However, Roy Morgan also noted the number of Australians considered to be ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by more than half a million (554,000) since May 2022, when the central bank started its rate hiking cycle.
Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered ‘extremely at risk’ of mortgage stress remained broadly in line with the long-term, two-decade average in September 2025 at 16.3 per cent or around 858,000 mortgage holders.
Roy Morgan considers a mortgagor ‘at risk’ if they are paying more than a certain proportion of their after-tax household income towards their home loan, based on the relevant standard variable rate reported by the RBA and the original loan amount.
Mortgagors are considered ‘extremely at risk’ if even the interest-only payments exceed that proportion of household income.
Roy Morgan’s mortgage stress data is drawn from its Single Source survey, conducted annually with over 60,000 Australians.
Michele Levine, CEO at Roy Morgan, said future rate cuts would likely see the share of ‘at risk’ mortgagors drop even further.
“However, as we have previously highlighted, although the short-term impact of reducing interest rates is an immediate reduction in mortgage stress, there are counter-vailing factors that mean it can lead to further stress down the road,” she added.
“As general interest rates are lowered, new buyers entering the market are able to borrow more money for larger loans to buy the best house they can afford at that time, and this, in turn, leads to a subsequent increase in mortgage stress due to the larger size of the average loan.”
The central bank is set to meet in the first week of November to decide on its next cash rate, and while many economists have delayed their forecasts for a rate cut, weaker-than-expected employment data has made the outcome less certain.
The broker’s role
Speaking to The Adviser, George Massouridis, founder and CEO of Sydney-based brokerage Mortgage Navigators, said the property market is expected to experience consistent and sustainable growth in the next six to 12 months.
“Tight or shortage in supply of property and population growth will support increased property values, while affordability pressures and cautious consumer sentiment will hold back demand,” he said.
“If the RBA continues to deliver further rate cuts, we should see an increase in borrower confidence and gradual growth in loan activity, particularly from people upgrading their homes and new owner-occupiers. Lenders will continue being careful with their lending policies, ensuring the property market remains steady and sustainable and not overheated.”
Massouridis also said brokers can play a vital role in easing mortgage stress.
“[They can do] this by engaging early, reviewing clients’ finances, and negotiating better deals with lenders. At Mortgage Navigators we proactively approach lenders to help borrowers adjust their repayments or refinance them to better rates,” he added.
“I believe proactive support helps borrowers regain control and prevent hardship before it escalates, adding extra stress to families.”
[Related: Mortgage stress falls to lowest level in almost 2 years]
