The spring property market is typically characterised by a flurry of activity, but this year’s season looks set to be defined by a degree of uncertainty as much as anything else.
As The Adviser’s readership would be well aware, 2026 has brought a raft of regulatory changes already shaping the thinking of prospective buyers.
Investors are perhaps the group facing the biggest shift in strategies, largely off the back of major announcements in the May 2026 federal budget.
Key changes include the treatment of negative gearing, with the government set to limit negative gearing on residential property to new builds from 1 July 2027.
The capital gains tax (CGT) regime will also be overhauled, with the 50 per cent discount to be replaced by cost-base indexation from 1 July 2027, alongside a 30 per cent minimum tax rate on real capital gains.
At face value, these reforms appear to tilt the balance in favour of first home buyers.
Several states have also introduced or expanded initiatives aimed at reducing the upfront cost of buying a home, including stamp duty exemptions and concessions.
NSW, Victoria, and Western Australia, for example, have raised the thresholds at which eligible first home buyers can access full or partial relief, while South Australia has abolished stamp duty for eligible first home buyers purchasing new homes.
Income thresholds for Help to Buy, the federal government’s shared-equity home buying scheme, have also increased for the 2026–27 financial year, with 10,000 new places also available.
Yet three cash rate hikes in the space of a calendar year, coupled with prevailing cost-of-living pressures, have made the property market feel as uncertain as ever.
As a result, many investors and first home buyers are likely weighing up what comes next.
Cause for pause?
One interesting dynamic in recent months has been falling auction clearance rates.
Data from property analytics firm Cotality has revealed a dip in nationwide clearance rates since late May 2026, including a particularly weak weekend in late June, when about 1,900 homes went to auction, yet only 47.4 per cent changed hands – the lowest rate since April 2020.
Since then, the auction clearance rate has risen slightly to sit above 55 per cent at time of writing, but this is still significantly below the decade average of 68 per cent.
House values have provided another wrinkle, with Cotality’s latest Regional Market Update showing regional markets outperforming the capitals in the three months to July 2026.
Values across the regions eased by just 0.1 per cent over the period, while values across the combined capital cities fell by a broader 2.5 per cent.
However, Cotality Australia head of research Gerard Burg said even though regions outperformed the capitals, they were not immune to a broader slowdown.
“Regional markets have consistently outperformed the capital cities since housing conditions began to soften in late 2025, but even the regional markets are now being impacted by the broader market slowdown,” he said.
“Relative affordability continues to attract buyers to many regional markets and support internal migration from the capitals. However, softer buyer demand is becoming more evident across the country, with fewer markets recording the strong growth seen earlier this year.”
This sense of cooling was also evident in the latest Lending Indicators data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with the number of new loan commitments falling 5.4 per cent over the June quarter and investor lending recording its steepest quarterly decline in almost four years during the three months to 30 June 2026.
The ABS reported 134,225 new loan commitments for dwellings in the June quarter of 2026, with owner-occupier commitments falling 3.3 per cent to 81,626, while first home buyer (FHB) commitments declined 2.9 per cent to 29,319.
Investor lending experienced the sharpest contraction, falling 8.6 per cent over the quarter.
While investor commitments remained 2.8 per cent higher than a year earlier, the annual growth rate slowed sharply from 19.4 per cent in the March quarter.
In its August 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pointed to this “sharp” decline in new housing loan commitments.
“Total credit growth has been relatively stable over the year to date but is expected to ease over coming months as declines in housing prices flow through to housing credit growth,” the RBA said.
The central bank attributed the fall primarily to weaker investor activity amid softer market conditions, higher interest rates, and the changes to investor taxation.
“This is expected to flow through to a further slowing in housing credit growth in the months ahead,” the RBA said.
Bright shoots
So, is it time for mortgage brokers to start learning how to read BAS statements and price out loans for earthmoving equipment? Well, not necessarily.
Nick Lim, founder and broker at Melbourne-based brokerage Switchboard Finance, says a little preparation can go a long way this spring, encouraging brokers to look closely at the makeup of their existing book and ensure they are across the regulatory changes shaping the market.
“Reprice your existing book before your clients go shopping,” he says.
“Same product, existing customers are usually paying more than new ones, and a client who picks up a discount on their current loan walks into spring with more capacity and more reason to stay with you.”
Lim also encourages brokers to stay on top of regulatory developments.
“Be able to hold a conversation about the CGT changes,” he says.
“Not advise – that’s the accountant’s job – but know enough to frame it, because clients are going to ask, and ‘speak to your accountant’ as a complete answer is how you lose them.”
Andrea Torres, founder and broker at Sydney-based brokerage Novaseed Finance, says brokers need to be ready to ask buyers difficult questions about financial resilience and whether they are genuinely prepared for the risks that come with stretching their borrowing capacity.
Buyers who understand contract conditions, pre-approval requirements, and lender turnaround times are far better positioned to act decisively
– Chris Hutton, broker and director, Hutton Home Loans
“What would happen if a client used all their savings to purchase at their maximum borrowing capacity and then lost their job a few months later?” she says.
“This is especially important for clients working in industries experiencing uncertainty.”
And for Chris Hutton, broker and director at South Australian brokerage Hutton Home Loans, educating clients about timelines has become more important than ever.
“Spring moves fast. Buyers who understand contract conditions, pre-approval requirements, and lender turnaround times are far better positioned to act decisively,” he says.
“Spring is always a momentum season – and this year, clarity and preparation will be the difference between watching the market and participating in it.”
