Commercial brokers are growing more confident about their clients’ business health, with optimism strengthening across key financial fundamentals and industry demand. Those are the key findings from the latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending Report from Agile Market Intelligence.
The report, conducted in partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA), captured the experiences of brokers across asset finance, business loans, and commercial mortgages.
The most recent edition, which included responses from commercial brokers between 1 and 23 August 2025, reveals that brokers believe businesses are moving away from survival mode and towards cautious growth planning.
Optimism emerges
The report reveals a decisive shift into positive territory for brokers’ views on client business fundamentals.
Brokers’ net sentiment scores – calculated by subtracting the percentage of brokers expecting conditions to worsen from those expecting improvement to create an index ranging from -100 (all pessimistic) to +100 (all optimistic) – are improving.
Sentiment scores for cash flow (+18), revenue (+28), and employee headcount (+7) all climbed into net positive territory after being negative last year.
Cash flow optimism in particular ticked up 3 points since the previous quarter, while headcount outlook also rose by 3 points. Revenue has been consistently strong, holding steady at +28. Although outlook on financing requirements softened slightly, it remained in positive territory.
Noting the figures, Michael Johnson, director at Agile Market Intelligence, comments: “The turnaround in cash flow expectations is telling us that businesses are moving beyond just managing through uncertainty to actually seeing light at the end of the tunnel.”
Agriculture and wholesale trade lead growth expectations
On the industry front, things are also looking up. The overall market demand index – which measures the proportion of brokers forecasting growth versus those expecting declines – showed that no industry recorded negative scores in July, reflecting a broad stabilisation in demand.
Brokers are reporting resilience across traditional industries, particularly those
tied to agriculture and trade.
Agriculture was found to be showing the strongest momentum, with 43 per cent of brokers expecting increased demand, up from 24 per cent the previous month. This sharp rise pushed the sector’s demand index to +35, its highest point this year.
Wholesale trade has also staged a rebound, bouncing back to +26 in July after softening in June.
But at the other end of the spectrum, there has been a moderation in previously high-growth sectors, such as transportation and recreation, which suggests that demand is levelling off rather than weakening.
Transportation eased to +21 (down from +33), while arts and recreation dropped to zero from +18. Media and telecommunications also moderated to +19, down from +24.
Stability replaces volatility
The convergence of improved client business health and rebalancing sector demand points to an inflection point for commercial lending.
After periods of sharp swings in expectations, the market is now moving into a phase of steadier sentiment.
“We’re witnessing a healthy maturation in the commercial lending market where unrealistic expectations are giving way to sustainable growth patterns,” Johnson says.
This stabilisation reflects a return to fundamentals. With optimism returning to client businesses and key sectors like agriculture and wholesale trade, the commercial lending market is finding a steady heartbeat, signalling renewed confidence and resilience and providing a prime opportunity for brokers.
